Materials Week '97: Wednesday PM Session

Focusing on physical metallurgy and materials, Materials Week '97, which incorporates the TMS Fall Meeting, features a wide array of technical symposia sponsored by The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society (TMS) and ASM International. The meeting will be held September 14-18 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The following session will be held Wednesday afternoon, September 17.

ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EMERGING MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES

Session Chairs: Sujit Das, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6205; S. Viswanathan, Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6083

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL SILICON NITRIDE COMPONENTS: J.M. Schoenung, Chemical and Materials Engineering, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA 91768; B. Draskovich, Allied Signal Ceramic Components, Torrance, CA 90504

Economic analyses were conducted on five structural silicon nitride components, including stators, rotors, and cam roller followers. Multiple forming operations were considered, including slip casting, gelcasting, injection molding, and dry pressing. The economic analyses involved the development and refinement of process-based technical cost models using spreadsheet software. These TCMs were used to estimate the costs of fabrication under a wide variety of production scenarios and annual production volumes. Cost drivers were identified from various perspectives, for example, by cost element such as direct labor, by unit operation such as sintering, and by process inputs such as cycle time and process yield. Comparisons were made of the costs and cost drivers for the different components, and for the different shape forming operations. Sensitivity of cost to key input values was also investigated.

1:55 pm

TRIALS, TOOLS, AND TRICKS--SHARING 25 YEARS OF TECHNICAL-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS EXPERIENCE AT OWENS CORNING: Gabe Tincher, Owens Corning, Columbus, OH

For over 25 years, the technical-economic analysis group at Owens Corning has served as an internal consulting group conducting technical-economic analyses and competitive economics analyses of materials which compete in end-use markets and customer processes. This paper will include examples of some of the analytical tools used, share some of the approaches that have worked well, and discuss some of the trials and tribulations of the work. Case examples selected from the composites and building materials industries will be used to illustrate what has been learned and how these studies have been used in strategic decision making at Owens Corning.

2:20 pm

APPLIED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT: Anthony E. Mascarin , Ted Hannibal, IBIS Associates, Inc., Wellesley, MA 02181-4003

The understanding of cost is a key factor in determining the commercial success of new technologies. Technical Cost Modeling (TCM) is a technique that provides understanding by developing a detailed economic simulation of manufacturing processes. TCM can provide economic assessments of technically competitive processes and the effects of alternative manufacturing scenarios. TCM has been applied to broad range of advanced materials programs to identify critical cost drivers in a dynamic fashion as the development of a cost effective manufacturing technology progresses. Elements critical to the component cost include, but are not limited to the component design, tolerances, automation, yield improvements, and learning effects. This paper reviews the general cost analysis methodology and presents sample results from advanced ceramics programs and discusses the relationships among critical cost factors such as cycle time, yield, finishing operations, and capital investment.

2:45 pm

A DESIGN COST MODEL FOR NEW PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT: S.G. Shina, Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Massachusetts - Lowell, Lowell, MA 01701; Anil Saigal, Mechanical Engineering Department, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155

A design cost model which is sensitive to many of the variables of the manufacturing process, in terms of the selection of components and part technologies, manufacturing automation, process quality, tooling investment and volume sensitivity is discussed. The model starts with an Activity Based Costing (ABC) model with additional capabilities dealing with each manufacturing process step in terms of cost, quality, automation level, tooling, machine setup and operator skills. The model can be used to study impacts on the cost of the new product due to reconfiguration of the manufacturing mix of existing products on the production floor. Alternate design and manufacturing process selection can be evaluated while changing estimated production volume and process flow. An example will be presented using CACI simulation package Simfactory 7 and a spreadsheet based design cost model, working interactively in order to evaluate new electronic product costs.

3:10 pm BREAK

3:20 pm

ASSESSING THE AFFORDABILITY OF CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED METAL MATRIX COMPOSITES: D.M. Elzey, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903

A number of processing approaches are emerging for the manufacture of continuously reinforced metal matrix composites (cMMC's). To date, these new materials have been produced only in small quantities, making them expensive and limiting the availability of reliable experimental data. Consequently, it is difficult to assess the economic viability of these manufacturing routes and their capability to provide material having an acceptable combination of cost and performance. A recently developed method for assessing the affordability of emerging materials, known as QCM (Quality-Cost Modeling), allows quantitative comparison of competing manufacturing technologies and is being applied to selected cMMC processes. QCM is illustrated by application to slurry casting and plasma spray deposition processes for manufacturing continuously reinforced titanium matrix composites.

3:45 pm

THE USE OF PROCESS SIMULATION IN COST MODELING: W.M. Tilton, Summit Solutions, Inc., Colorado Springs, CO 80906

Process simulation can be used as a powerful tool for the cost/benefit analysis of manufacturing technologies. By careful assignment of cost values to resources and to the various elements of a manufacturing process, the cost associated with that process can be quickly evaluated under a variety of operational scenarios. Costs can be determined for each step in a manufacturing process, and can be aggregated to present a total cost picture. Bottlenecks can be identified, and the cost/benefit of options for their elimination can be determined by running excursions of the simulation. Modern simulation software supports the full range of statistical analysis and probability assignments, which enables cost/benefit evaluation of quality control issues and procedures. The use of full color, fully animated models supports common understanding of manufacturing processes by management and labor, resulting in greater likelihood of finding ways to improve the process, particularly important for emerging materials and alternative manufacturing technologies.

4:15 pm

MANUFACTURING BASED COST MODELING OF ADVANCED CERAMIC COMPONENTS: E.H. Kraft, Kyocera Industrial Ceramics Corp., Vancouver, WA 98661; J.M. Schoenung, Chemical and Materials Engineering, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA 91768

A manufacturing cost model has been constructed for advanced ceramic components. The model has its origins in Excel spreadsheets used in quoting prototype and production quantities of ceramic parts. Input factors include run rates, material costs and lot quantities, part lot sizes, process step machine and labor times, yields, applicable machine capacities, and labor and machine cost rates. Tooling and engineering estimation is also included. Output includes total cost, unit cost, process step cost, and graphical display of unit operation cost. The model has been refined based on general industrial cost model experience, and the inputs improved using expanded manufacturing experience. It has been exercised to study manufacturing costs of industrial and heat engine components with production rates from a few prototypes to automotive volumes. Auxiliary models allow estimation of machine and building space requirements.

4:40 pm

SPREADSHEET MODEL OF COSTS OF AUTOMOBILE SHREDDING INDUSTRY: F.C. McMichael, A.L. Sterdis, Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213

This paper describes a spreadsheet model of a typical automobile shredding facility. Automobile shredding facilities are an integral part of the existing U.S. automobile recycling infrastructure. Shredding facilities purchase automotive hulks and process them into marketable output products including ferrous, white metal and red metal scrap. The spreadsheet model discussed in this paper depicts the size reduction and separation processes and associated costs for the operations at a typical facility. Using estimates of cost and process efficiencies for each of the operations, the model calculates processing costs and composition of the output streams (ferrous, white metal, red metal and shredder residue). Process costs modeled include capital equipment, electricity, equipment maintenance and wear, and labor costs. Using scrap metal prices and estimated ASR disposal costs, along with these processing costs and output stream compositions, economic performance of the facility can be predicted. The results predict the consequences of hulk composition changes on the costs for hulk shredding and separation.